As sweltering summer heat in Austin and across Texas threatens to strain the state's electric grid, some energy experts expressed confidence in the network's ability to handle the increased workload but couldn't definitively rule out possible power outages.
TheElectric Reliability Council of Texas, the state agency that operates the grid, predicts the grid's capacity for energy generation will be sufficient to manage forecast peaks in energy usage from June to September, according to its Seasonal Assessment for Resource Adequacy, which was released in May. The agency estimates 90% of the state relies on the grid for power.
ERCOT estimates in the assessment that the base summer peak load will be 82,739 megawatts, which doesn't take into account the council's 2023 weather predictions.
However, ERCOT is also forecasting an available energy capacity of nearly 100,000 megawatts Monday.
The agency issued a weather watch Tuesday in anticipation of heightened energy demand later in the week. ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas wrote in a news release that grid conditions remain normal during weather watches, so no disruption is expected.
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The biggest driver for grid overload comes from residents and businesses using air conditioning to stay cool, said Robert Hebner, director of the University of Texas Center for Electromechanics.
Christy Penders, a spokesperson for ERCOT, declined the American-Statesman's request for an interview.
Austin Energy, a utility provider that buys and sells power through ERCOT's markets, conducted maintenance of its power plants in preparation for the summer's triple-digit temperatures, said Matt Mitchell, a spokesperson for the city utility. That has become normal operating procedure for the utility because of Austin's notoriously hot summers.
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Are ERCOT's predictions accurate?
Hebner believes ERCOT's predictions will be fairly accurate based on the gradual increase of temperatures and competition among utility companies in the state. Companies can better adjust and plan for summer heat when temperatures rise slowly like they have in recent weeks, and companies are likely working to ensure they're not causing problems for customers, he said.
"Any rapid change in temperature causes great difficulty. If you have a gradual change, (companies) usually adjust to it fairly well," Hebner said. "This summer, there's a good chance they've anticipated well enough that we'll be able to get through."
There are no guarantees the predictions will be correct, though.
"We have temperatures going up at the same time we have population growth, at the same time we have energy demand growth, and so we have a lot of things that are changing in ways that make it hard to predict year to year exactly what the extreme peak is going to be," Hebner said.
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Power grid constantly tested by extreme weather
During record heat over the summer last year, ERCOT asked Texans several times to cut back on energy use when electricity demand approached generation capacity. Despite the council's pleas, Peter Lake, former chair of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, told the Statesman at the time that he was fully confident in the power grid's capabilities.
The grid fared better than many had expected during a cold snap in December, though demand for energy far outpaced ERCOT's expectations at the time.
The state's grid held up during a February ice storm, but damage to powerlines and other infrastructure left thousands without power in Austin for several days.
After the storm, Austin Energy and city officials faced scrutiny over their preparedness and response to the storm. Mitchell said the problems the company encountered during those mass outages further informed its preparedness for the summer months.
"Any time you go through something like that, and after every summer, after every extreme weather event, we do an analysis of what went right and what went wrong," Mitchell said. "It's a constant analysis of where we can improve and what we need to be on guard against as we get into the summer months."
In February 2021, a major winter storm ravaged Texas, killing well over 100 people and leaving more than hundreds of thousands of residents without power for several days.
Editor's note: This article has been updated to correct mistakes. Demand is not expected to exceed grid capacity, and ratepayers are responsible for paying for their electricity.
