Lane Thomas fills significant need, but Guardians pay hefty price to Nationals (2024)

Deal details: Cleveland Guardians acquire OF Lane Thomas from the Washington Nationals for LHP Alex Clemmey, SS José Tena and IF Rafael Ramirez Jr.

Cleveland needed outfield help, and more generally some offensive help, and they turned out to be one of the teams that lined up the best with the Nationals, who’ve been willing to trade Lane Thomas but didn’t want to let him go for the price of a platoon bat. As a result, the Guardians paid a hefty price for a player who clearly helps them, and the Nats do very well for a player who’s been great for them for almost two years now but who’s about to get squeezed out by younger talent.

Thomas had a career year in 2023, with 28 homers and a .268/.315/.468 line that was somewhat fluky but enough to show he could be an everyday player for some teams. He’s backed off this year to .253/.331/.407 with worse defense in right field, which makes it a little surprising that a contender would acquire him to play regularly, but the Guardians have received a .210/.288/.359 line from their right fielders this year, so Thomas will indeed be an upgrade.

It also highlights the difficulty Cleveland has had in developing their own corner bats — you can fairly state that any contender should be able to create their own Lane Thomas rather than trading three prospects to acquire just a year and a half of his time.

The Nationals did extremely well here, which isn’t to say that any of the three guys they acquired is a guarantee — far from it, in fact. They acquired three high-risk, high-reward prospects, and there’s a decent chance none of them pans out, but all three offer more than enough upside to justify their inclusion in the trade.

Shortstop José Tena was a top-100 prospect for me after the 2021 season when he hit .281/.331/.467 as a 20-year-old in High A, but Cleveland started messing with his setup and swing and he’s had a lot of variance in his performance since then. He’s hit well this year in Triple A — .298/.353/.493 — although that’s misleading as he’s chased 35 percent of pitches out of the zone, even with the benefit of the challenge system.

The power is real, though, and he could be a 20+ homer shortstop if he can make better swing decisions. Nationals shortstop C.J. Abrams has had a breakout year at the plate, but he remains an abysmal defender at shortstop, at minus-9 Runs Above Average this year after he was at minus-6 in 2023, and acquiring Tena would let the Nats slide Abrams to second or center.

Lefty Alex Clemmey just turned 19 earlier this month and is pitching in Low A, struggling with command and control but with premium stuff. Clemmey hit 100 mph in high school in 2023 with a high-effort delivery he couldn’t repeat. Cleveland’s player development staff has simplified the delivery and smoothed it out, so he’s now more 93-95 and tops out at 97 but has a much better shot to throw strikes.

He’s got a 55 slider (on the 20-80 scouting scale) that has some tilt and is up to about 88 mph, with a changeup he barely uses but that has some promise. He’s very athletic and has a great 6-foot-6 frame. The Guardians took him in the second round in 2023, just before his 18thbirthday, and the Nats could reasonably say they just got an extra second-round pick.

Rafael Ramirez Jr. also just turned 19 this month. He’s scuffled in 54 games in Low A because he belongs in the short-season level that no longer exists, a drum I won’t stop beating because it is actively hurting the development of prospects and thus the product on the field at all levels, including the majors. He’s hitting .187/.301/.319 with a 33 percent strikeout rate.

Ramirez is still undersized and underpowered, but he does have good actions at short and some hand speed at the plate to project him to a utility infielder role — even though he may have to repeat a level in the minors along the way.

(Top photo of Thomas: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw